Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Carcass day in Iowa

With the Iowa Caucus set to occur today, the question is--apparent from who will win--who will be done in? Most polls show Romney slightly ahead of Paul, followed by Santorum, then Gingrich, then Perry, with Bachmann and Huntsman bringing up the rear in single digits.

The RCP average has it--in that same order--at 22.8% (R), 21.5% (Pa), 16.3% (S), 13.7% (G) , 11.5% (Pe), 6.8% (B), and 2.3% (H). That suggests a two-person race between Romney and Paul. But let's cut through the nonsense and deal with reality:

1. Paul will not get the Republican nomination. It's not happening. Never was and never will.

2. Santorum--at number three in Iowa--doesn't have the national presence or necessary campaign machinery.

3. Perry and Bachmann--despite early moments of glory--are not national candidates and are too divisive, at the end of the day.

4. Huntsman has never had a prayer.

That leaves Romney and Gingrich. And despite all the blustery talk about Gingrich and his "massive" brain, the man really isn't the intellectual giant some make him out to be. Moreover, he comes across--to all but his fans--as a massive jerk. If the polls are right, Iowa might be the beginning of the end for him. Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann have good reason to stay in, all have a chance for the VP slot (especially Bachmann, in my opinion). But there's no way Gingrich gets that gig. He's talked himself out of it.

That leaves Paul, who is an entirely different animal. He won't win the nomination and he won't get the VP slot, but he'll stay in to keep his point of view in the discussion. Not a bad thing at all, but still just a side show.

So, the carcass in the road will likely be that of Gingrich. Good riddance.

Cheers, all.

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