Friday, October 21, 2011

Premature Punditry

It's good to know I'm not alone on this: the mainstream political pundits are spewing nonsense when they claim the GOP is a two-person race between Romney and Perry, and even more nonsense when they claim Romney has the nomination all but secured. Craig Shirley at Politico agrees with me...thank goodness someone does.

In his words:
How many now remember President John Connally or President Ted Kennedy — or other slam-dunk nominees, who only had to float their names to win the presidency as enunciated by the elites? 
Since then, Perry has fallen in the polls like nobody’s business, and Romney, after five years of panting after the nomination, is still stuck at 25 percent. 
The media made the mistake of writing that it was a two-man race, and now they are making the mistake of saying Romney has the nomination sewn up. One of the best pollsters and consultants in the business, Tony Fabrizio, knows his way around a campaign and a poll — and knows that a front-runner gets what a front-runner gets.
And he makes the following very significant observation, with regard to Christie and the widely accepted claims that the Governor's failure to enter the race--and subsequent endorsement of Mitt--was a sort of tipping point that made Romney close to unbeatable in the primary:
Indeed, as soon as Christie endorsed Romney, the one-term Massachusetts governor went down in the polls.
As I noted previously, Christie was never really the rising star among conservatives that the media would have us believe. He would have been deeply flawed as a candidate and his conservative bona fides were simply not there.

And it's only October, for Pete's sake! I remember the 2008 primaries, when--at this point--this same crowd of know-it-alls was insisting that Romney was a shoe-in and McCain was done, while on the Dem side Obama was on the outside looking in at Clinton, who was poised to get the nomination. And I remember the 2000 primaries, when it was Bush that was finished and McCain that had it in the bag.

The 24-hour news cycle can be a great boon; it keeps churning, keeps updating, keeps informing, but when it comes the pundits, everyone feels compelled to make absolute claims. And--like the proverbial weatherman--they always seem to be wrong when tomorrow finally comes.

Cheers, all.

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